Riyadh’s population to hit 9.6m by 2030, driving demand for 305k new homes: Knight Frank

Riyadh’s population to hit 9.6m by 2030, driving demand for 305k new homes: Knight Frank
The Knight Frank report anticipates a significant rise in the expat population in Riyadh. Shutterstock
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Updated 25 October 2024
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Riyadh’s population to hit 9.6m by 2030, driving demand for 305k new homes: Knight Frank

Riyadh’s population to hit 9.6m by 2030, driving demand for 305k new homes: Knight Frank

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh is poised for significant population growth, with the number of residents projected to rise from 7 million in 2022 to 9.6 million by 2030, according to a new report.

London-based real estate consultancy Knight Frank projects that the city’s population will comprise 4.1 million Saudis and 5.5 million expatriates by the end of the decade, marking a 38 percent increase driven by a compound annual growth rate of 4.1 percent.

This will drive a need for 305,000 additional housing units for Saudi nationals between 2024 and 2034, driven by household formation, increased homeownership, and internal migration from other regions.

The forecast predicts greater growth than envisaged by World Population Review, which in April used UN figures to put Riyadh’s 2030 population at 8.5 million.

The Knight Frank report anticipates a significant rise in the expat population in Riyadh, which on current figures makes up approximately 52.3 percent of the city’s total population. 

It projects an increase of 1.85 million expats by 2030, followed by an additional 2.3 million by 2034. As a result, the ratio of Saudi nationals to non-Saudis is expected to decline from 0.92 in 2022 to 0.75 by 2030.

This shift is primarily driven by the rising demand for expat workers needed to support the construction of large-scale developments and manage the new facilities in Riyadh.

Estimating housing demand from this group is challenging due to variations in household sizes, according to Knight Frank, but 77 percent of expats indicated a desire to own their homes in a previous survey conducted by the firm.

Riyadh’s growth is underpinned by Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the economy and increase global investments. Currently, Riyadh makes up 21.8 percent of the Kingdom’s total population, with 17.8 percent of Saudi nationals living in the capital.

With the Regional Headquarters Program encouraging multinational companies to relocate their regional operations to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has naturally become the focal point for economic activity.

This initiative, combined with significant infrastructure and urban development projects, is driving both the expatriate and Saudi populations to rise.

Major projects, such as the New Murabba and Diriyah Gate, are further establishing Riyadh as the center of Saudi Arabia’s transformation.

Riyadh is also gearing up for Expo 2030 and World Cup 2034, which will see the construction of eight out of 11 new stadiums. To support this growth, the King Salman International Airport will be established, along with Riyadh Air, connecting the capital to 100 global cities.

According to the Ministry of Investment’s latest report, the capital led foreign direct investment inflows in 2023, attracting SR33 billion — positioning Riyadh as the leading administrative region.

This growth reflects the city’s role as both the Kingdom’s political and economic powerhouse, where investor confidence is bolstered by large-scale developments and strategic government initiatives.

With 62 percent of the population under 30 according to Knight Frank, the city is focused on providing new housing, employment opportunities, and recreational options to meet the demands of its young and rapidly growing demographic.

Riyadh’s workforce to expand by 39 percent by 2034

Knight Frank forecasts the number of working-age Saudi nationals in Riyadh will increase by about 1 million over the next decade, reaching 4.2 million, which corresponds to a compound annual growth rate of 2.8 percent.

If internal migrants relocate to Riyadh for work, this could add another 275,000, resulting in a total workforce growth of 36 percent.

As of the first quarter of 2024, the employment-to-population ratio for working-age Saudi nationals is 54.3 percent, suggesting that around 510,000 new local employees may enter the workforce by 2034.

With an estimated existing workforce of 1.7 million Saudis in the region, overall growth could yield an increase of 16 percent to 23 percent by 2030 and 29 percent to 39 percent by 2034, depending on the scale of internal migration.

During this recent period, new workforce entrants were primarily absorbed by the private sector and government-related entities, while employment in the civil service has remained stable, the report said.

According to latest figures from the World Bank, female labor force participation has reached 34.5 percent, exceeding the Vision 2030 target of 30 percent and prompting a new goal of 40 percent by 2030.

Both government and private sectors are implementing legal reforms and initiatives to empower women, with programs focusing on women’s roles in economic development.

Companies such as Red Sea Global are prioritizing gender diversity, with women occupying significant positions across various departments.

Meeting future demand

Riyadh’s new housing supply comes from four main sources, including the Ministry of Housing, which oversees affordable projects through the National Housing Company and private firms.

There are also government developments led by the Public Investment Fund and Roshn, private sector initiatives from real estate companies, and self-development by families purchasing land for construction.

Currently, about 330,000 housing units have been announced by government-related entities.

The projected demand from Saudi nationals is estimated at 220,000 units from 2024 to 2030 and 305,000 units from 2024 to 2034, suggesting that current construction efforts align with expected housing needs.

Knight Frank reported that significant commercial real estate development is underway in Riyadh to support a projected 32 percent increase in office space and a 24 percent rise in retail space by 2030, driven by an expanding workforce and a growing expat population.

The urgency for new projects across sectors like financial services, transport, storage, and ICT is underscored by tight market conditions.

Riyadh accounts for 30 percent of Saudi Arabia’s financial and business services output and 39 percent of transport, storage, and ICT output, reinforcing its status as a key hub for innovation and economic activity.


Qatar strengthens fiscal position with $245m budget surplus in Q4 

Qatar strengthens fiscal position with $245m budget surplus in Q4 
Updated 14 sec ago
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Qatar strengthens fiscal position with $245m budget surplus in Q4 

Qatar strengthens fiscal position with $245m budget surplus in Q4 

RIYADH: Qatar recorded a budget surplus of 900 million Qatari riyals ($245.6 million) in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 100 million riyals in the previous quarter. 

The Ministry of Finance stated on its X account that the surplus will be used to reduce public debt. It added that total expenditures for the quarter stood at 47.8 billion riyals, a 12 percent year-on-year decline, while revenues totaled 48.7 billion riyals, reflecting a 12.5 percent drop. 

The health, municipal and environment, general secretariat, and energy sectors ranked as the top-performing areas during the quarter, according to the Sector Performance Index.  

Qatar’s fiscal performance aligns with other Gulf Cooperation Council nations, such as Oman, which recorded a 6.2 percent budget surplus in 2024. This reflects the International Monetary Fund’s December review, which highlighted the region’s resilience amid oil production cuts, supported by diversification efforts and economic reforms. 

“For the second consecutive year, and in line with Qatar’s continued dedication to developing health and education, allocations for the two sectors have increased, with both amounting to 20 percent of the total new budget,” the ministry said. 

Government tenders and auctions during the quarter were valued at 6.4 billion riyals, while contracts with local companies totaled 4.8 billion riyals, a 36.8 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023. 

The 2024 state budget prioritized significant investments in healthcare, with 11 percent of total expenditures allocated to the sector. Key projects include the development of the National Cancer Hospital, a specialized psychiatric hospital, and upgrades to existing healthcare facilities. 

In the third quarter of 2024, Qatar’s budget surplus declined by 97.4 percent compared to the second quarter. Total revenues for that period were 51.3 billion riyals, driven by oil and gas revenues of 42.3 billion riyals, which fell 25.4 percent year on year due to fluctuating market conditions. 

Non-oil revenues, however, showed strong growth, rising 76.8 percent year on year from a lower base. 

Expenditures totaled 51.2 billion riyals in the third quarter, a 2.8 percent increase compared to the same quarter in 2023, with notable spending on salaries, wages, and minor capital expenditures. 

The government prioritized debt reduction during the period, in line with its fiscal strategy. Public debt stood at 332.4 billion riyals, equivalent to 38.6 percent of nominal gross domestic product. 


Saudia sets new heights in 2024, flying 20m international passengers with 16% growth

Saudia sets new heights in 2024, flying 20m international passengers with 16% growth
Updated 23 min 57 sec ago
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Saudia sets new heights in 2024, flying 20m international passengers with 16% growth

Saudia sets new heights in 2024, flying 20m international passengers with 16% growth
  • Saudia reported an 18% increase in transit guests compared to the previous year, surpassing 9.3 million passengers
  • It carried 35 million guests throughout 2024, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s national flag carrier Saudia reported a 16 percent year-on-year rise in its international passenger numbers in 2024, reaching 20 million, highlighting its growth and operational success.

Saudia also reported an 18 percent increase in transit guests compared to the previous year, surpassing 9.3 million passengers, according to its performance report statement, released on Jan. 23.

The growth reflects the carrier’s efforts to strengthen global connections to the Kingdom, supporting the ambitious goals of Saudi Vision 2030 in tourism, entertainment, sports, and the Muslim Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages.

According to the International Air Transport Association, the Middle East’s air travel market continued its strong recovery in November, with passenger demand increasing by 8.9 percent compared to the same month in 2023.

While this growth was robust, it was slightly ahead of the global trend, which saw an 8.1 percent increase in total passenger demand.

 

The region’s performance was part of a broader international trend, where the Middle East, alongside Europe and Asia-Pacific, led the way in demand growth. However, airlines in the region continue to face challenges in aircraft supply, preventing them from fully meeting growing demand and improving their services, IATA said in a statement released earlier this month.

Major international markets in the Middle East experienced a notable increase in traffic demand, driven by the strong performance of the region’s largest aviation hubs, despite some countries facing challenges from geopolitical conflicts, according to IATA.

Ibrahim Al-Omar, the director general of Saudia Group, said that success in the competitive aviation industry requires a continuously evolving strategy, adding that the airline remains committed to achieving sustainable operational excellence while upholding the highest international standards.

“This remarkable growth is a testament to the dedication and hard work of Saudia’s employees and the strategic optimization of our aircraft fleet to deliver exceptional service. We have also made significant strides in enhancing our services and enriching the overall guest experience,” he said.

In its report, Saudia said that it carried 35 million guests throughout 2024, reflecting a 15 percent year-on-year increase.

The airline reported operating 193,000 scheduled and additional flights last year, reflecting a 10 percent increase from the year before, adding that it also achieved an 8.5 percent rise in flight hours, totaling over 581,000, while maintaining an on-time performance rate of 89.1 percent, marking a 2.7 percent improvement.

The company’s customer satisfaction metric showed a 32.7 score, reflecting a 4.5 percent increase compared to 2023, according to the statement.

Saudia said it saw a notable increase in guest engagement through modern technologies as part of its ongoing digital transformation. It noted a 40 percent rise in usage of the Saudia app, while the Government Digital Wallet, GovClick, drove an impressive 324 percent growth in digital service adoption.

The company’s futuristic plans include strengthening its operational model, particularly during peak travel seasons, by expanding its fleet, increasing seat capacity, and broadening its global network.

With a current fleet of 147 aircraft, the airline aims to add 118 new planes in the coming years as part of its growth strategy.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 12,354

Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 12,354
Updated 38 min 20 sec ago
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 12,354

Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 12,354

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Thursday, losing 8.35 points, or 0.07 percent, to close at 12,354.04. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.67 billion ($1.77 billion), as 112 of the stocks advanced and 114 retreated.  

Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 154.28 points, or 0.50 percent, to close at 30,846.59. This comes as 32 of the listed stocks advanced while 49 retreated.  

The MSCI Tadawul Index also lost 1.64 points, or 0.11 percent, to close at 1,543.38.  

The best-performing stock of the day was Almoosa Health Co., whose share price surged 10 percent to SR154. 

Other top performers included Al Jouf Cement Co., whose share price rose 8.22 percent to SR12.90, as well as Northern Region Cement Co., whose share price surged 6.56 percent to SR9.91.

Saudi Reinsurance Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 2.90 percent to SR60.20, while Middle East Specialized Cables Co. also saw its stock prices fall 2.67 percent to SR45.60. 

Kingdom Holding Co. recorded a drop of 2.42 percent to SR9.29.

On the announcements front, Riyad Bank has completed the offer of its SR-denominated additional tier 1 capital sukuk under its Additional Tier 1 Capital Sukuk Program, which is worth SR10 billion. 

According to a Tadawul statement, the total number of sukuk is 800, with the value of the offer standing at SR2 billion. The statement also showed that while the par value is SR250,000, the return is 6 percent per annum.

Riyad Bank ended the session at SR29.60, with no percentage change in price.

Albilad Capital has rebalanced the sukuk basket for the Albilad Saudi Sovereign Sukuk ETF to align with the components of the index. According to a bourse filing, the rebalancing took place on Jan. 22.

Albilad Capital ended the session at SR8.30, with no percentage change in price.

Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Co. has decreased its accumulated losses to 0 percent of the capital. According to a Tadawul statement, this move is mainly attributed to the use of SR39 million out of the total statutory reserve balance amounting, to SR43 million to extinguish the firm’s accumulated losses. 

The company highlighted that the use of the company’s statutory reserve has no impact on its financial obligations.

Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Co. ended the session at SR16.70, up 1.24 percent.

Arabian Plastic Industrial Co. has signed a contract with Badael Co., a Public Investment Fund firm, to manufacture and supply plastic containers for 3 years. 

A bourse filing revealed that the agreement value exceeds 5 percent of the company’s total revenues according to the audited annual financial statements for the year 2023. The filing also indicated that the financial impact of the deal is forecasted to be reflected positively on the financial statements starting from the first half of 2025.

Arabian Plastic Industrial Co. ended the session at SR37, up 1.23 percent.


GCC banks to issue over $30bn in US dollar debt in 2025: Fitch Ratings 

GCC banks to issue over $30bn in US dollar debt in 2025: Fitch Ratings 
Updated 23 January 2025
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GCC banks to issue over $30bn in US dollar debt in 2025: Fitch Ratings 

GCC banks to issue over $30bn in US dollar debt in 2025: Fitch Ratings 

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council banks are projected to issue over $30 billion in US dollar-denominated debt in 2025, following a record $42 billion in 2024, Fitch Ratings said in a new report. 

The surge in debt issuance is set to be driven by nearly $23 billion in maturing debt, lower US dollar interest rates, and strong regional credit demand, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 

This comes as GCC banks accounted for 18 percent of total US dollar debt issuance by emerging-market banks in 2024, with this figure rising to 36 percent if Chinese banks are excluded. Favorable global financing conditions, supported by high oil prices expected to stay around $70 per barrel in 2025, are expected to continue to bolster investor confidence in the region. 

“We expect Saudi banks’ US dollar debt issuance to continue representing a high proportion of overall GCC issuance given the country’s strong credit growth outlook, especially in the corporate segment, and the banks’ increased use of external funding due to high competition for liquidity locally,” stated Fitch Ratings. 

Last year, GCC banks broke their previous debt issuance record of $25.6 billion set in 2020. This increase was largely attributed to strong credit growth in Saudi Arabia, banks’ efforts to diversify funding sources, and high debt maturities. The issuance of certificates of deposits alone totaled $8.6 billion, benefiting from investor optimism and the region’s economic stability, the report noted. 

Saudi and UAE banks were the leading issuers, each accounting for around a third of total GCC debt issuance. Saudi banks, in particular, have become active in international debt markets since 2020, using external funding to support aggressive growth strategies, diversify funding bases, and meet rising foreign currency demands. 

Short-term CDs were a key instrument in GCC banks’ debt strategies in 2024, accounting for about 21 percent of total debt issuance. Key financial hubs such as New York, London, Hong Kong, and Singapore facilitated much of this activity, broadening investor bases and enhancing liquidity options. 

The report noted that Islamic finance stayed strong, with sukuk issuance accounting for nearly half of the total 2024 issuance, excluding CDs. The growth in sukuk highlights its appeal to shariah-compliant investors and competitive pricing that makes it an attractive funding instrument for regional banks. 

Fitch expects Saudi banks to maintain a dominant share of GCC debt issuance in 2025, driven by strong credit growth in the corporate sector and increasing competition for local liquidity. 

In 2025, GCC banks will face substantial debt maturities, with Qatari banks expected to account for one-third of the $23 billion due. Saudi and UAE banks will each represent about a quarter of the maturing debt. 

Despite global economic uncertainties, Fitch stated that GCC banks are expected to leverage their solid credit ratings and favorable economic conditions to secure advantageous financing terms. 

Sukuk issuance is expected to grow further as banks tap into the expanding pool of shariah-compliant investors. Fitch said the continued use of short-term instruments like CDs will provide banks with greater flexibility in managing funding needs and expanding their global investor base. 

Additionally, GCC banks are expected to issue $2.2 billion in additional Tier 1 instruments with first call dates in 2025, followed by $3.1 billion in 2026. This will further support debt issuance, as most GCC bank AT1s are likely to be called due to favorable financing conditions. 

AT1 issuance reached $5 billion in 2024, up from $1.7 billion in 2023, marking the highest level since 2021. This surge was driven mainly by Saudi banks. 

As GCC banks continue to play a key role in regional economic growth, their strategic debt issuance and diversified funding solutions are expected to drive further financial stability and market confidence in 2025. 


WEF panelists urge for efforts to bridge ‘AI divide’

WEF panelists urge for efforts to bridge ‘AI divide’
Updated 23 January 2025
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WEF panelists urge for efforts to bridge ‘AI divide’

WEF panelists urge for efforts to bridge ‘AI divide’
  • According to UN figures, 2.7 billion people do not have access to the Internet

DUBAI: While smart technologies unleash opportunities in investment and trade, concerted efforts must seek to bridge the “AI divide” in developing countries, a World Economic Forum panel heard on Thursday.

Deemah Al-Yahya, secretary-general of the Digital Cooperation Organization, said the need for energy, computing power and talent to activate AI would expand the digital gap in the developing world.

“An AI-generated image consumes more energy than charging your smartphone. That’s going to cause a great challenge for developed countries, so let alone developing countries that do not even have reliable energy.”

She added: “Another factor is who is going to get access to the computing power, considering the supply chain and cost? How can talents access the computer power to produce algorithms, local content and innovation?”

According to UN figures, 2.7 billion people do not have access to the Internet, with AI growth threatening to widen the digital gap.

However, using trading digital assets can increase access to new technologies, including AI, quantum computing and blockchain, in the global south, Al-Yahya said.

Highlighting the varying degrees of advancement of digital infrastructures among countries, Al-Yahya stressed harmonizing collaboration and bridge communication between the public and private sector, which served as the drivers of the digital economy.

One of the Digital Cooperation Organization’s mandates is to harmonize policies and regulations among 16 member states from Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East to expand technology use and grow their digital economy.

Addressing the benefits of AI in improving efficiency and reducing errors, Thani Ahmed Al-Zeyoudi, UAE minister of state for foreign trade, highlighted synergies and links to different tech systems, even within the same country.

“Many of those technologies are under deployment, but in various scattered ways. Each stakeholder is following their own way when it comes to customers, procedures and managements system,” said Al-Zeyoudi, highlighting the role of governments in implementing regulations that put AI to good use and ensure communication across stakeholders.

He addressed the UAE’s export of technologies to Africa, noting that the private sector took the lead in such initiatives.

“To avoid fragmentation as governments, we need to take the lead by putting (in place) a regulatory system that ensures that the private sector has the freedom to start doing their job, get the funding whenever required, and support them in talking to the right stakeholders,” he said.